R/trend_cor.R
trend_cor.Rd
Fully incorporates the uncertainty from the posterior of the DFA trend
trend_cor( rotated_modelfit, y, trend = 1, time_window = seq_len(length(y)), trend_samples = 100, stan_iter = 300, stan_chains = 1, ... )
rotated_modelfit | Output from |
---|---|
y | A numeric vector to correlate with the DFA trend. Must be the same length as the DFA trend. |
trend | A number corresponding to which trend to use, defaults to 1. |
time_window | Indices indicating a time window slice to use in the correlation. Defaults to using the entire time window. Can be used to walk through the timeseries and test the cross correlations. |
trend_samples | The number of samples from the trend posterior to use. A model will be run for each trend sample so this value shouldn't be too large. Defaults to 100. |
stan_iter | The number of samples from the posterior with each Stan model run, defaults to 300. |
stan_chains | The number of chains for each Stan model run, defaults to 1. |
... | Other arguments to pass to |
A numeric vector of samples from the correlation coefficient posterior.
Uses a sigma ~ half_t(3, 0, 2)
prior on the residual standard
deviation and a uniform(-1, 1)
prior on the correlation coefficient.
Fitted as a linear regression of y ~ x
, where y represents the y
argument to trend_cor()
and x
represents the DFA trend, and both y
and x
have been scaled by subtracting their means and dividing by their
standard deviations. Samples are drawn from the posterior of the trend and
repeatedly fed through the Stan regression to come up with a combined
posterior of the correlation.
set.seed(1) s <- sim_dfa(num_trends = 1, num_years = 15) m <- fit_dfa(y = s$y_sim, num_trends = 1, iter = 50, chains = 1)#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'dfa' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 3.3e-05 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.33 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the #> Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured. #> Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of #> Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations: #> Chain 1: init_buffer = 3 #> Chain 1: adapt_window = 20 #> Chain 1: term_buffer = 2 #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 50 [ 2%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 5 / 50 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 10 / 50 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 15 / 50 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 20 / 50 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 25 / 50 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 26 / 50 [ 52%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 50 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 35 / 50 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 40 / 50 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 45 / 50 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 50 / 50 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.010256 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.235504 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.24576 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: There were 1 chains where the estimated Bayesian Fraction of Missing Information was low. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bfmi-low#> Warning: Examine the pairs() plot to diagnose sampling problems#> Warning: The largest R-hat is 2.1, indicating chains have not mixed. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#r-hat#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess#> Inference for the input samples (1 chains: each with iter = 25; warmup = 12): #> #> Q5 Q50 Q95 Mean SD Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS #> x[1,1] -1.6 -0.3 0.9 -0.4 0.9 1.30 6 13 #> x[1,2] -0.7 0.6 1.3 0.4 0.8 1.47 5 13 #> x[1,3] 0.0 1.1 1.9 0.9 0.7 1.71 4 13 #> x[1,4] 0.3 0.9 2.0 1.1 0.7 2.06 4 13 #> x[1,5] -0.2 0.5 1.4 0.6 0.6 2.06 4 13 #> x[1,6] -0.5 0.2 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.92 13 13 #> x[1,7] -0.3 0.2 1.1 0.4 0.5 1.71 8 13 #> x[1,8] -0.4 0.0 1.2 0.2 0.6 0.93 12 13 #> x[1,9] 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.3 1.45 5 13 #> x[1,10] -1.0 0.2 0.7 0.0 0.6 1.45 5 13 #> x[1,11] -2.2 -1.4 -0.6 -1.4 0.6 1.20 6 13 #> x[1,12] -2.5 -1.3 0.3 -1.2 1.1 2.06 4 13 #> x[1,13] -1.8 -0.9 0.8 -0.7 1.1 2.06 4 13 #> x[1,14] -0.8 -0.4 0.3 -0.3 0.4 0.96 13 13 #> x[1,15] -0.8 0.5 0.9 0.2 0.6 1.09 12 13 #> Z[1,1] -4.9 -0.9 7.8 0.0 6.2 1.87 13 13 #> Z[2,1] 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.5 0.4 1.33 13 13 #> Z[3,1] -1.7 -0.7 1.0 -0.5 0.9 1.71 11 13 #> Z[4,1] -0.7 -0.2 0.7 -0.1 0.5 1.71 9 13 #> log_lik[1] -4.5 -0.8 -0.5 -1.8 1.6 1.71 4 13 #> log_lik[2] -3.7 -1.0 -0.5 -1.5 1.2 1.39 5 13 #> log_lik[3] -3.7 -1.0 -0.5 -1.5 1.2 1.71 4 13 #> log_lik[4] -3.7 -1.1 -0.7 -1.6 1.1 1.07 10 13 #> log_lik[5] -3.8 -1.8 -0.7 -2.1 1.1 1.87 4 13 #> log_lik[6] -3.7 -0.9 -0.7 -1.6 1.1 1.48 5 13 #> log_lik[7] -3.7 -1.0 -0.5 -1.5 1.1 1.71 4 13 #> log_lik[8] -3.7 -1.5 -1.1 -2.0 0.9 1.18 7 13 #> log_lik[9] -3.7 -1.1 -0.4 -1.6 1.2 2.06 4 13 #> log_lik[10] -3.7 -0.6 -0.5 -1.4 1.2 1.71 4 13 #> log_lik[11] -3.7 -1.4 -0.5 -1.6 1.1 2.06 4 13 #> log_lik[12] -3.7 -0.8 -0.5 -1.4 1.2 1.71 5 13 #> log_lik[13] -3.9 -1.2 -0.4 -1.6 1.2 1.58 4 13 #> log_lik[14] -3.7 -2.3 -1.1 -2.3 0.9 1.30 5 13 #> log_lik[15] -3.7 -1.5 -0.5 -1.6 1.1 1.33 5 13 #> log_lik[16] -3.7 -0.8 -0.5 -1.3 1.2 1.87 4 13 #> log_lik[17] -3.7 -0.9 -0.5 -1.5 1.2 1.58 5 13 #> log_lik[18] -3.7 -0.8 -0.5 -1.3 1.2 1.30 5 13 #> log_lik[19] -3.7 -1.0 -0.5 -1.5 1.1 1.58 4 13 #> log_lik[20] -3.7 -1.2 -1.0 -1.7 1.0 1.08 8 13 #> log_lik[21] -3.8 -0.8 -0.4 -1.6 1.3 1.71 4 13 #> log_lik[22] -3.7 -0.8 -0.5 -1.4 1.2 1.58 4 13 #> log_lik[23] -3.7 -0.9 -0.5 -1.5 1.2 1.71 4 13 #> log_lik[24] -3.7 -0.7 -0.4 -1.3 1.2 2.06 4 13 #> log_lik[25] -4.1 -0.8 -0.4 -1.5 1.4 1.87 4 13 #> log_lik[26] -3.7 -0.8 -0.4 -1.3 1.2 2.06 4 13 #> log_lik[27] -3.7 -0.7 -0.4 -1.4 1.2 2.06 4 13 #> log_lik[28] -3.7 -0.6 -0.4 -1.3 1.2 1.87 4 13 #> log_lik[29] -3.7 -1.1 -0.6 -1.5 1.1 1.21 6 13 #> log_lik[30] -3.7 -0.9 -0.5 -1.4 1.2 1.48 5 13 #> log_lik[31] -3.7 -1.2 -0.7 -1.7 1.1 1.19 7 13 #> log_lik[32] -3.7 -0.6 -0.5 -1.3 1.2 1.58 4 13 #> log_lik[33] -3.8 -0.6 -0.4 -1.3 1.3 1.58 5 13 #> log_lik[34] -3.7 -1.2 -0.8 -1.6 1.0 1.08 8 13 #> log_lik[35] -3.7 -0.8 -0.5 -1.4 1.2 1.71 4 13 #> log_lik[36] -3.7 -0.9 -0.8 -1.5 1.1 1.06 8 13 #> log_lik[37] -3.7 -0.9 -0.5 -1.4 1.2 1.71 4 13 #> log_lik[38] -3.7 -0.8 -0.4 -1.3 1.2 1.71 4 13 #> log_lik[39] -3.7 -0.9 -0.5 -1.6 1.2 1.31 5 13 #> log_lik[40] -3.7 -1.0 -0.6 -1.4 1.1 1.71 4 13 #> log_lik[41] -4.6 -1.0 -0.4 -1.7 1.6 1.39 5 13 #> log_lik[42] -3.7 -2.1 -0.9 -2.2 0.9 1.45 5 13 #> log_lik[43] -4.3 -1.2 -0.5 -1.9 1.6 1.71 5 13 #> log_lik[44] -4.7 -3.4 -1.3 -3.3 1.2 1.05 13 13 #> log_lik[45] -4.0 -1.7 -0.5 -1.9 1.4 1.87 6 13 #> log_lik[46] -3.7 -0.7 -0.6 -1.5 1.2 1.58 6 13 #> log_lik[47] -3.7 -0.9 -0.5 -1.7 1.3 1.58 4 13 #> log_lik[48] -7.4 -4.9 -2.4 -4.7 1.9 1.05 13 13 #> log_lik[49] -4.0 -0.9 -0.5 -1.7 1.4 1.87 4 13 #> log_lik[50] -3.7 -1.2 -0.5 -1.6 1.1 2.06 4 13 #> log_lik[51] -3.7 -1.4 -0.5 -1.7 1.1 1.19 6 13 #> log_lik[52] -3.7 -0.9 -0.7 -1.5 1.1 1.71 4 13 #> log_lik[53] -3.8 -0.9 -0.5 -1.4 1.2 2.06 4 13 #> log_lik[54] -3.7 -0.8 -0.4 -1.3 1.2 1.58 4 13 #> log_lik[55] -3.7 -0.9 -0.5 -1.4 1.2 2.06 4 13 #> log_lik[56] -3.7 -2.2 -1.4 -2.4 0.9 1.45 8 13 #> log_lik[57] -5.0 -1.3 -0.6 -2.1 1.8 1.58 5 13 #> log_lik[58] -3.7 -2.3 -0.8 -2.2 1.1 0.98 10 13 #> log_lik[59] -4.1 -1.3 -0.5 -1.8 1.4 1.48 5 13 #> log_lik[60] -3.7 -2.0 -0.9 -2.1 1.0 1.71 8 13 #> xstar[1,1] -2.2 0.7 2.1 0.4 1.5 1.21 13 13 #> sigma[1] 0.6 0.7 15.9 3.5 5.7 1.58 4 13 #> lp__ -315.4 -60.3 -46.3 -110.6 108.8 2.06 4 13 #> #> For each parameter, Bulk_ESS and Tail_ESS are crude measures of #> effective sample size for bulk and tail quantities respectively (an ESS > 100 #> per chain is considered good), and Rhat is the potential scale reduction #> factor on rank normalized split chains (at convergence, Rhat <= 1.05).r <- rotate_trends(m) n_years <- ncol(r$trends[, 1, ]) fake_dat <- rnorm(n_years, 0, 1) correlation <- trend_cor(r, fake_dat, trend_samples = 25)#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'corr' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 1e-05 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.1 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 120 / 300 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 150 / 300 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 151 / 300 [ 50%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 180 / 300 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 210 / 300 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 240 / 300 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 270 / 300 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003374 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.002817 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.006191 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: The largest R-hat is 1.09, indicating chains have not mixed. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#r-hat#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'corr' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 8e-06 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.08 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 120 / 300 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 150 / 300 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 151 / 300 [ 50%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 180 / 300 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 210 / 300 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 240 / 300 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 270 / 300 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003223 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.00262 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.005843 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'corr' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 8e-06 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.08 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 120 / 300 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 150 / 300 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 151 / 300 [ 50%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 180 / 300 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 210 / 300 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 240 / 300 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 270 / 300 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003228 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.002099 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.005327 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'corr' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 9e-06 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.09 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 120 / 300 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 150 / 300 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 151 / 300 [ 50%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 180 / 300 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 210 / 300 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 240 / 300 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 270 / 300 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003462 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.002524 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.005986 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'corr' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 9e-06 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.09 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 120 / 300 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 150 / 300 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 151 / 300 [ 50%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 180 / 300 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 210 / 300 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 240 / 300 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 270 / 300 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003242 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.002199 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.005441 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'corr' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 1.1e-05 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.11 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 120 / 300 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 150 / 300 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 151 / 300 [ 50%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 180 / 300 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 210 / 300 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 240 / 300 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 270 / 300 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003826 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.002464 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.00629 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'corr' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 9e-06 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.09 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 120 / 300 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 150 / 300 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 151 / 300 [ 50%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 180 / 300 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 210 / 300 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 240 / 300 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 270 / 300 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003274 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.002683 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.005957 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'corr' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 8e-06 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.08 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 120 / 300 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 150 / 300 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 151 / 300 [ 50%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 180 / 300 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 210 / 300 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 240 / 300 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 270 / 300 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003292 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.002251 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.005543 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: The largest R-hat is 1.08, indicating chains have not mixed. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#r-hat#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'corr' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 1e-05 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.1 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 120 / 300 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 150 / 300 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 151 / 300 [ 50%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 180 / 300 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 210 / 300 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 240 / 300 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 270 / 300 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003649 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.002432 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.006081 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'corr' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 9e-06 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.09 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 120 / 300 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 150 / 300 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 151 / 300 [ 50%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 180 / 300 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 210 / 300 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 240 / 300 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 270 / 300 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003262 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.002251 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.005513 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'corr' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 8e-06 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.08 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 120 / 300 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 150 / 300 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 151 / 300 [ 50%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 180 / 300 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 210 / 300 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 240 / 300 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 270 / 300 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003209 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.002343 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.005552 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'corr' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 9e-06 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.09 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 120 / 300 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 150 / 300 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 151 / 300 [ 50%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 180 / 300 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 210 / 300 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 240 / 300 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 270 / 300 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.002897 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.002353 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.00525 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: The largest R-hat is 1.12, indicating chains have not mixed. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#r-hat#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'corr' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 9e-06 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.09 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 120 / 300 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 150 / 300 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 151 / 300 [ 50%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 180 / 300 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 210 / 300 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 240 / 300 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 270 / 300 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003358 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.002446 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.005804 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'corr' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 120 / 300 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 150 / 300 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 151 / 300 [ 50%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 180 / 300 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 210 / 300 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 240 / 300 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 270 / 300 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003136 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.001999 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.005135 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'corr' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 9e-06 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.09 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 120 / 300 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 150 / 300 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 151 / 300 [ 50%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 180 / 300 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 210 / 300 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 240 / 300 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 270 / 300 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003418 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.002436 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.005854 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'corr' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 8e-06 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.08 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 120 / 300 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 150 / 300 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 151 / 300 [ 50%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 180 / 300 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 210 / 300 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 240 / 300 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 270 / 300 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003182 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.002507 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.005689 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'corr' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 8e-06 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.08 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 120 / 300 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 150 / 300 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 151 / 300 [ 50%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 180 / 300 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 210 / 300 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 240 / 300 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 270 / 300 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003582 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.001984 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.005566 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'corr' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 9e-06 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.09 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 120 / 300 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 150 / 300 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 151 / 300 [ 50%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 180 / 300 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 210 / 300 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 240 / 300 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 270 / 300 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.00284 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.002374 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.005214 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'corr' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 9e-06 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.09 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 120 / 300 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 150 / 300 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 151 / 300 [ 50%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 180 / 300 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 210 / 300 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 240 / 300 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 270 / 300 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.00311 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.002151 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.005261 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'corr' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 9e-06 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.09 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 120 / 300 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 150 / 300 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 151 / 300 [ 50%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 180 / 300 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 210 / 300 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 240 / 300 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 270 / 300 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.002964 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.00243 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.005394 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'corr' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 9e-06 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.09 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 120 / 300 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 150 / 300 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 151 / 300 [ 50%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 180 / 300 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 210 / 300 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 240 / 300 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 270 / 300 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003145 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.002432 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.005577 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'corr' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 8e-06 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.08 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 120 / 300 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 150 / 300 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 151 / 300 [ 50%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 180 / 300 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 210 / 300 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 240 / 300 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 270 / 300 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003116 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.002406 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.005522 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'corr' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 9e-06 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.09 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 120 / 300 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 150 / 300 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 151 / 300 [ 50%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 180 / 300 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 210 / 300 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 240 / 300 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 270 / 300 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003558 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.00211 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.005668 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'corr' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 8e-06 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.08 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 120 / 300 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 150 / 300 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 151 / 300 [ 50%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 180 / 300 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 210 / 300 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 240 / 300 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 270 / 300 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003807 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.002197 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.006004 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'corr' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 8e-06 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.08 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 120 / 300 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 150 / 300 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 151 / 300 [ 50%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 180 / 300 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 210 / 300 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 240 / 300 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 270 / 300 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003135 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.002222 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.005357 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-esscorrelation <- trend_cor(r, y = fake_dat, time_window = 5:15, trend_samples = 25 )#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'corr' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 1e-05 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.1 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 120 / 300 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 150 / 300 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 151 / 300 [ 50%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 180 / 300 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 210 / 300 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 240 / 300 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 270 / 300 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.0034 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.002783 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.006183 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'corr' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 8e-06 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.08 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 120 / 300 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 150 / 300 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 151 / 300 [ 50%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 180 / 300 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 210 / 300 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 240 / 300 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 270 / 300 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.002912 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.002669 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.005581 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'corr' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 8e-06 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.08 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 120 / 300 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 150 / 300 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 151 / 300 [ 50%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 180 / 300 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 210 / 300 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 240 / 300 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 270 / 300 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003432 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.002518 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.00595 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'corr' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 8e-06 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.08 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 120 / 300 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 150 / 300 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 151 / 300 [ 50%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 180 / 300 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 210 / 300 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 240 / 300 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 270 / 300 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.002981 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.002225 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.005206 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: The largest R-hat is 1.05, indicating chains have not mixed. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#r-hat#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'corr' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 9e-06 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.09 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 120 / 300 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 150 / 300 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 151 / 300 [ 50%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 180 / 300 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 210 / 300 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 240 / 300 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 270 / 300 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003347 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.002211 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.005558 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'corr' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 8e-06 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.08 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 120 / 300 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 150 / 300 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 151 / 300 [ 50%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 180 / 300 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 210 / 300 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 240 / 300 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 270 / 300 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003317 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.002172 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.005489 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: The largest R-hat is 1.05, indicating chains have not mixed. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#r-hat#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'corr' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 8e-06 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.08 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 120 / 300 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 150 / 300 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 151 / 300 [ 50%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 180 / 300 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 210 / 300 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 240 / 300 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 270 / 300 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003862 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.00283 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.006692 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: The largest R-hat is 1.14, indicating chains have not mixed. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#r-hat#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'corr' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 9e-06 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.09 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 120 / 300 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 150 / 300 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 151 / 300 [ 50%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 180 / 300 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 210 / 300 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 240 / 300 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 270 / 300 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003186 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.002461 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.005647 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'corr' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 8e-06 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.08 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 120 / 300 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 150 / 300 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 151 / 300 [ 50%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 180 / 300 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 210 / 300 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 240 / 300 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 270 / 300 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.00348 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.003311 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.006791 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'corr' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 9e-06 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.09 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 120 / 300 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 150 / 300 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 151 / 300 [ 50%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 180 / 300 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 210 / 300 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 240 / 300 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 270 / 300 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.002763 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.002243 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.005006 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'corr' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 8e-06 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.08 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 120 / 300 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 150 / 300 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 151 / 300 [ 50%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 180 / 300 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 210 / 300 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 240 / 300 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 270 / 300 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.00293 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.002323 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.005253 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'corr' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 9e-06 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.09 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 120 / 300 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 150 / 300 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 151 / 300 [ 50%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 180 / 300 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 210 / 300 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 240 / 300 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 270 / 300 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003616 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.002443 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.006059 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'corr' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 120 / 300 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 150 / 300 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 151 / 300 [ 50%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 180 / 300 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 210 / 300 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 240 / 300 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 270 / 300 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003379 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.002363 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.005742 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'corr' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 120 / 300 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 150 / 300 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 151 / 300 [ 50%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 180 / 300 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 210 / 300 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 240 / 300 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 270 / 300 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003242 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.002282 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.005524 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: The largest R-hat is 1.08, indicating chains have not mixed. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#r-hat#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'corr' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 9e-06 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.09 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 120 / 300 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 150 / 300 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 151 / 300 [ 50%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 180 / 300 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 210 / 300 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 240 / 300 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 270 / 300 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003212 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.002267 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.005479 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'corr' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 8e-06 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.08 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 120 / 300 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 150 / 300 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 151 / 300 [ 50%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 180 / 300 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 210 / 300 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 240 / 300 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 270 / 300 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.002784 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.002387 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.005171 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'corr' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 8e-06 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.08 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 120 / 300 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 150 / 300 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 151 / 300 [ 50%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 180 / 300 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 210 / 300 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 240 / 300 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 270 / 300 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.00309 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.002329 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.005419 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'corr' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 8e-06 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.08 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 120 / 300 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 150 / 300 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 151 / 300 [ 50%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 180 / 300 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 210 / 300 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 240 / 300 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 270 / 300 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003679 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.002578 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.006257 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: The largest R-hat is 1.05, indicating chains have not mixed. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#r-hat#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'corr' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 8e-06 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.08 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 120 / 300 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 150 / 300 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 151 / 300 [ 50%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 180 / 300 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 210 / 300 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 240 / 300 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 270 / 300 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003512 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.002367 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.005879 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: The largest R-hat is 1.08, indicating chains have not mixed. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#r-hat#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'corr' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 9e-06 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.09 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 120 / 300 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 150 / 300 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 151 / 300 [ 50%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 180 / 300 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 210 / 300 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 240 / 300 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 270 / 300 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003179 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.002241 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.00542 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'corr' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 9e-06 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.09 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 120 / 300 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 150 / 300 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 151 / 300 [ 50%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 180 / 300 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 210 / 300 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 240 / 300 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 270 / 300 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003087 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.002679 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.005766 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'corr' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 1e-05 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.1 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 120 / 300 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 150 / 300 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 151 / 300 [ 50%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 180 / 300 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 210 / 300 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 240 / 300 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 270 / 300 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003319 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.002972 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.006291 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'corr' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 9e-06 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.09 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 120 / 300 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 150 / 300 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 151 / 300 [ 50%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 180 / 300 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 210 / 300 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 240 / 300 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 270 / 300 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003476 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.002434 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.00591 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'corr' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 8e-06 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.08 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 120 / 300 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 150 / 300 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 151 / 300 [ 50%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 180 / 300 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 210 / 300 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 240 / 300 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 270 / 300 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003006 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.002423 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.005429 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess#> #> SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'corr' NOW (CHAIN 1). #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 9e-06 seconds #> Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.09 seconds. #> Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly! #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 30 / 300 [ 10%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 60 / 300 [ 20%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 90 / 300 [ 30%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 120 / 300 [ 40%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 150 / 300 [ 50%] (Warmup) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 151 / 300 [ 50%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 180 / 300 [ 60%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 210 / 300 [ 70%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 240 / 300 [ 80%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 270 / 300 [ 90%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling) #> Chain 1: #> Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003609 seconds (Warm-up) #> Chain 1: 0.002322 seconds (Sampling) #> Chain 1: 0.005931 seconds (Total) #> Chain 1:#> Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess#> Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable. #> Running the chains for more iterations may help. See #> http://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess